Table of Contents:

Appendix A to the 2014 Utah Growth Model Report

Utah Student Growth Model Fit Plots

June 2015

1 Student Growth Percentile Fit Plots

A goodness of fit plot is produced for each unique analysis run in 2014. Each analysis is defined by the grade and content area for the grade-level analyses and the unique course progression sequences for the end of course test (EOCT) subjects.

Each fit plot contains three panels. The top panel is a mosaic plot that shows the percentage of students that fall into each proficiency level, and the location of the 10^th through 90^th quantiles of the Student Growth Percentile (SGP) distribution represented as dashed white lines (with the exception of the solid white line for the median/50^th percentile). The bottom left panel shows the empirical distribution of SGPs given prior scale score deciles in the form of a 10 by 10 cell grid. Percentages of student growth percentiles between the 10^th, 20^th, 30^th, 40^th, 50^th, 60^th, 70^th, 80^th, and 90^th percentiles were calculated based upon the decile of the prior year’s scaled score (the total students in each for the analyses varies depending on grade and subject). Deviations from perfect fit are indicated by red and blue shading. The further above 10 the darker the red, and the further below 10 the darker the blue. A more detailed discussion about the reasons for and implications of model misfit for the various SGP analysis types can be found in the “Goodness of Fit” section of the 2014 Utah Student Growth Model report. The bottom right panel of each plot is a Q-Q plot which compares the observed distribution of SGPs with the theoretical (uniform) distribution.

2 SAGE Grade-Level Plots

2.1 ELA

Fig. A.1: Goodness of Fit Plot for Grade 4 ELA, 2014.

Fig. A.2: Goodness of Fit Plot for Grade 5 ELA, 2014.

Fig. A.3: Goodness of Fit Plot for Grade 4 ELA, 2014.

Fig. A.4: Goodness of Fit Plot for Grade 7 ELA, 2014.

Fig. A.5: Goodness of Fit Plot for Grade 8 ELA, 2014.

Fig. A.6: Goodness of Fit Plot for Grade 9 ELA, 2014.

Fig. A.7: Goodness of Fit Plot for Grade 10 ELA, 2014.

Fig. A.8: Goodness of Fit Plot for Grade 11 ELA, 2014.

2.2 Mathematics

Fig. A.9: Goodness of Fit Plot for Grade 4 Mathematics, 2014.

Fig. A.10: Goodness of Fit Plot for Grade 5 Mathematics, 2014.

Fig. A.11: Goodness of Fit Plot for Grade 6 Mathematics, 2014.

Fig. A.12: Goodness of Fit Plot for Grade 7 Mathematics, 2014.

Fig. A.13: Goodness of Fit Plot for Grade 8 Mathematics, 2014.

2.3 Science

Fig. A.14: Goodness of Fit Plot for Grade 5 Science, 2014.

Fig. A.15: Goodness of Fit Plot for Grade 6 Science, 2014.

Fig. A.16: Goodness of Fit Plot for Grade 7 Science, 2014.

Fig. A.17: Goodness of Fit Plot for Grade 8 Science, 2014.

3 EOCT Goodness of Fit Plots

3.1 Earth Science

Fig. A.18: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Earth Science (Priors - 2013 Science Grade 8, 2012 Science Grade 7, 2011 Science Grade 6, 2010 Science Grade 5, 2009 Science Grade 4)

Fig. A.19: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Earth Science (Priors - 2013 Science Grade 8, 2012 Science Grade 7, 2011 Science Grade 6, 2010 Science Grade 5)

Fig. A.20: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Earth Science (Priors - 2013 Science Grade 8, 2012 Science Grade 7, 2011 Science Grade 6)

Fig. A.21: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Earth Science (Priors - 2013 Science Grade 8, 2012 Science Grade 7)

Fig. A.22: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Earth Science (Priors - 2013 Science Grade 8)

3.2 Biology

3.2.1 Earth Science as Imediate Prior

Fig. A.23: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Biology (Priors - 2013 Earth Science, 2012 Science Grade 8, 2011 Science Grade 7, 2010 Science Grade 6, 2009 Science Grade 5)

Fig. A.24: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Biology (Priors - 2013 Earth Science, 2012 Science Grade 8, 2011 Science Grade 7, 2010 Science Grade 6)

Fig. A.25: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Biology (Priors - 2013 Earth Science, 2012 Science Grade 8, 2011 Science Grade 7)

Fig. A.26: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Biology (Priors - 2013 Earth Science, 2012 Science Grade 8)

Fig. A.27: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Biology (Priors - 2013 Earth Science)

3.2.2 Grade 8 Science as Imediate Prior

Fig. A.28: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Biology (Priors - 2013 Science Grade 8, 2012 Science Grade 7, 2011 Science Grade 6, 2010 Science Grade 5, 2009 Science Grade 4)

Fig. A.29: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Biology (Priors - 2013 Science Grade 8, 2012 Science Grade 7, 2011 Science Grade 6, 2010 Science Grade 5)

Fig. A.30: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Biology (Priors - 2013 Science Grade 8, 2012 Science Grade 7, 2011 Science Grade 6)

Fig. A.31: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Biology (Priors - 2013 Science Grade 8, 2012 Science Grade 7)

Fig. A.32: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Biology (Priors - 2013 Science Grade 8)

3.3 Chemistry

3.3.1 Biology as Imediate Prior, Grade 8 Science Secondary

Fig. A.33: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Chemistry (Priors - 2013 Biology, 2012 Science Grade 8, 2011 Science Grade 7, 2010 Science Grade 6, 2009 Science Grade 5)

Fig. A.34: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Chemistry (Priors - 2013 Biology, 2012 Science Grade 8, 2011 Science Grade 7, 2010 Science Grade 6)

Fig. A.35: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Chemistry (Priors - 2013 Biology, 2012 Science Grade 8, 2011 Science Grade 7)

Fig. A.36: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Chemistry (Priors - 2013 Biology, 2012 Science Grade 8)

3.3.2 Biology as Imediate Prior, Earth Science Secondary

Fig. A.37: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Chemistry (Priors - 2013 Biology, 2012 Earth Science, 2011 Science Grade 8, 2010 Science Grade 7, 2009 Science Grade 6)

Fig. A.38: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Chemistry (Priors - 2013 Biology, 2012 Earth Science, 2011 Science Grade 8, 2010 Science Grade 7)

Fig. A.39: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Chemistry (Priors - 2013 Biology, 2012 Earth Science, 2011 Science Grade 8)

Fig. A.40: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Chemistry (Priors - 2013 Biology, 2012 Earth Science)

3.4 Physics

3.4.1 Biology as Imediate Prior

Fig. A.41: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Physics (Priors - 2013 Biology)

3.4.2 Chemistry as Imediate Prior

Fig. A.42: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Physics (Priors - 2013 Chemistry, 2012 Biology, 2011 Science Grade 8)

Fig. A.43: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Physics (Priors - 2013 Chemistry, 2012 Biology)

Fig. A.44: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Physics (Priors - 2013 Chemistry)

3.5 Secondary Math I

Fig. A.45: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Secondary Math I (Priors - 2013 Pre Algebra EOCT, 2012 Math Grade 7, 2011 Math Grade 6, 2010 Math Grade 5, 2009 Math Grade 4)

Fig. A.46: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Secondary Math I (Priors - 2013 Pre Algebra EOCT, 2012 Math Grade 7, 2011 Math Grade 6, 2010 Math Grade 5)

Fig. A.47: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Secondary Math I (Priors - 2013 Pre Algebra EOCT, 2012 Math Grade 7, 2011 Math Grade 6)

Fig. A.48: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Secondary Math I (Priors - 2013 Pre Algebra EOCT, 2012 Math Grade 7)

Fig. A.49: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Secondary Math I (Priors - 2013 Pre Algebra EOCT)

3.6 Secondary Math II

3.6.1 Pre-Algebra as Imediate Prior

Fig. A.50: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Secondary Math II (Priors - 2012 Pre Algebra, 2011 Math Grade 7, 2010 Math Grade 6, 2009 Math Grade 5)

Fig. A.51: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Secondary Math II (Priors - 2012 Pre Algebra, 2011 Math Grade 7, 2010 Math Grade 6)

Fig. A.52: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Secondary Math II (Priors - 2012 Pre Algebra, 2011 Math Grade 7)

Fig. A.53: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Secondary Math II (Priors - 2012 Pre Algebra)

3.6.2 Algebra I as Imediate Prior

Fig. A.54: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Secondary Math III (Priors - 2012 Algebra I, 2011 Pre Algebra, 2010 Math Grade 6, 2009 Math Grade 5)

Fig. A.55: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Secondary Math III (Priors - 2012 Algebra I, 2011 Pre Algebra, 2010 Math Grade 6)

Fig. A.56: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Secondary Math III (Priors - 2012 Algebra I, 2011 Pre Algebra)

Fig. A.57: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Secondary Math III (Priors - 2012 Algebra I)

3.7 Secondary Math III

Fig. A.58: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Secondary Math III (Priors - 2012 Algebra I)

Fig. A.59: Goodness of Fit Plot for 2014 Secondary Math III (Priors - 2013 Algebra I)